By Majlinda Bregu/ In my opinion🤔
“The cost of not expanding 🇪🇺 would be higher than that of membership.”
This is the conclusion of the European Parliament's Committee on Foreign Affairs (AFET), adopted yesterday, which frames the enlargement of 🇪🇺 as a strategic investment in the security, stability and geopolitical sustainability of the Union.
Delaying enlargement risks creating geopolitical grey areas, vulnerable to malign influences. Some candidate countries have already set ambitious targets for the conclusion of negotiations, even though the 🇪🇺 Union they will join will not be the same as today.
The alignment of AFET's conclusions with the current consultations on the EU's next Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF 2028–2034) brings the debate back to a simple truth: money matters!
Of the many realities influencing this debate, one is particularly difficult to ignore (I hope): during this MFF cycle, several countries currently in the process of enlargement are expected to become EU Member States.
The new EU budget draft, 2028–2034, worth around 2 trillion euros, places enlargement within the “Global Europe” chapter, which amounts to around 190–200 billion euros.
Within it, the Enlargement and Neighbourhood Instrument is expected to receive around 42.6 billion euros, just 2.2% of the total budget.
These 42.6 billion euros currently cover:
✅all enlargement countries (including Ukraine and Moldova plus the 6 Western Balkan countries),
✅neighborhood policy,
✅and compete with global crises, security, migration and geopolitical priorities.
This architecture raises a fundamental question:
Is the new EU Financial Plan also taking into account the possibility of enlargement with new members or has it planned everything while maintaining the current status of candidate countries?!
If Albania and Montenegro join by 2034, per capita funding will necessarily have to increase.
Currently, the Western Balkan countries (WB6) receive on average no more than 40 euros per capita per year.
If Albania joins during the next Financial Cycle 2028-2034
✅it exits the Global Europe Enlargement and Neighborhood Instrument (ENI),
✅enters the Cohesion Policy, the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and internal EU programs,
Albania and Montenegro, the next two countries to join, will need 500–1000 euros per capita per year, which again leads me to this conclusion:
If the EU's New Financial Framework does not foresee a clear transition mechanism for membership and assumes that enlargement can be absorbed without structural changes, then 🇪🇺 is risking remaining structurally unprepared for precisely that political outcome that it today calls a strategic priority!
No less is the risk that a "budget war" among EU member states will turn membership into a debate over numbers, instead of a reforming, well-managed and planned integration process.
Precisely for this reason, the Western Balkan countries must come together and seek clarity on
🔜a portfolio dedicated to enlargement, within or parallel to "Global Europe",
🔜a clear transitional budgetary period to move from pre-membership to full membership,
🔜a European Budget that matches political ambition with medium-term financial plans and above all geopolitical reality.
